FTSE 100 Inggris Menurun karena Harapan Kesepakatan Perdagangan Mengecewakan, Tarif Tetap Tidak Berubah

    by VT Markets
    /
    May 8, 2025
    The market is anticipating the announcement of a UK-US trade deal, with details causing disappointment. The UK FTSE 100 index has fallen into negative territory after previously trading higher. Reports suggest the deal remains unclear, maintaining the 10% US tariffs on various goods but focusing on steel and auto industries. The FTSE index has been declining since the report emerged. The agreement primarily targets reducing Trump’s 25% tariff on £10 billion of UK car exports to the US and £3 billion of steel and aluminum exports. It is expected to revert to Trump’s baseline global 10% tariff. A broader UK-US trade agreement remains months, possibly years away. Despite these initial tariff reductions, the UK’s Digital Services Tax, generating £800 million annually from companies like Amazon, Meta, and Google, will not be cut or removed. This tax may become a topic in future negotiations. This article describes how the FTSE 100 index, often seen as a benchmark of UK stock performance, slipped from earlier gains in response to emerging details around a long-awaited trade agreement with Washington. Despite early optimism, market sentiment turned when it became clear that the deal lacked immediate depth and failed to differ significantly from existing trade terms. The core of the arrangement appears limited — changes target only a few industries, most obviously vehicles and basic metals. Even then, the adjustments are small. The situation for car manufacturing focuses on the reduction from high tariffs set during Washington’s previous administration. This had heavily impacted UK companies sending goods to the US, whose exports became less competitive due to extra charges. Steel producers face a similar issue. We can see that the shift from a 25% barrier to a lower, broader tariff—likely around 10%—provides small relief, but doesn’t create the access many had expected. What matters next is not only the immediate tariff relief but how expectations are adjusted. For several months, many businesses had positioned themselves for a more thorough solution, one that would cover digital, goods, and services. That has not happened. From our perspective, such unfulfilled expectations tend to cause market fluctuations, especially when the difference between possibility and reality is large. From a tactical view, it’s useful to recognize where short-term reactions may get ahead of themselves. For example, stock markets are aware that an agreement years in the making should carry more importance than what lately feels like a political stopgap. Focusing narrowly on sectors immediately impacted—specifically autos and steel—makes sense, but it’s behavior around broader sentiment that shapes positioning. When sentiment changes quickly, it’s often the reaction to the messaging that matters more than the actual policy. Another aspect to watch is the UK’s Digital Services Tax. This has generated significant regular revenue and currently remains unchanged in the new agreement. Economically, its presence serves as a pressure point. Politically, it acts as baggage in longer-term discussions. As long as it’s in place, large US technology firms won’t secure a cleaner or cheaper operating profile in Britain, and policymakers across the Atlantic likely won’t let it be overlooked. From a market perspective, pricing around technology and industrials may become disconnected as a result. While American shares of major US-based internet firms might experience slight changes in perception, UK domestic exposure remains relatively unaffected for now. We believe that with many trading instruments tracking these sectors, opportunistic trades will begin to focus on differences rather than similarities. As traders, we are cautious of noisy narratives and prefer to view these situations as short points of change where positioning becomes temporarily misaligned. We also observe that trading volumes tend to increase during reports like these — not due to clarity, but because of disagreement about interpretation. These are the moments we prepare for, as they often provide better entry levels once the direction becomes clearer. In the coming days, as regulatory notes and cross-department briefings are reviewed, we expect more clarity — but not necessarily a reversal of this week’s movement. Sentiment often lags behind events that are unclear initially, especially when decisions depend on incomplete terms. Strategies linked to shorter-duration trading options should be watched closely for unexpected changes. Now that the gap between rhetoric and delivery is clear, further repositioning around export-led manufacturers, commodity producers, and even currency plays may become relevant. Certainly, the pound’s behavior will interact with these trade announcements in measurable ways — especially if tariffs are confirmed by formal statements in the next few sessions. We continue to track these variables with priority. **Poin-poin penting**: 1. UK FTSE 100 index declined after trade deal announcement. 2. The deal affects tariffs mainly on cars and steel. 3. UK’s Digital Services Tax remains unchanged. 4. Market watches for sentiment changes in response to new trade details.

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