The NZD/USD pair shows modest gains, trading around 0.5805 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. This movement occurs amidst expectations of future US interest rate cuts, which place pressure on the US Dollar. The upcoming release of the FOMC Minutes is a focal point, coinciding with thin trading volumes due to the New Year holiday. The US Federal Reserve finalised its third rate cut this year, adjusting the federal funds rate to a target range of 3.50%-3.75%. Jerome Powell noted that future policies will depend on economic data, with a focus on inflation and employment. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 16.1% probability of a rate cut at January’s policy meeting.

Pendapatan Rumah Tertunda dan Keputusan RBNZ

US Pending Home Sales rose 3.3% in November, surpassing the 1.0% market consensus. In New Zealand, the RBNZ ended its rate-cutting cycle, which could strengthen the NZD against the USD. The RBNZ had reduced the Official Cash Rate to 2.25% in November, signalling future decisions will depend on economic indicators. Factors influencing the NZD include kebijakan bank sentral Selandia Baru, kesehatan ekonomi, kinerja ekonomi China, dan harga susu. Elemen-elemen ini, bersama dengan sentimen risiko, dapat berdampak pada kekuatan NZD terhadap USD. With the NZD/USD trading around 0.5805, we see a potential upward path for the pair heading into the new year. The main driver is the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates in 2026, putting pressure on the US Dollar. Trading volumes are likely to be thin until after the New Year holiday, which can sometimes lead to sharper moves. The Fed’s dovish pivot in late 2025 follows the aggressive hiking cycle we saw back in 2022 and 2023. The most recent November 2025 Core PCE inflation data, which came in at 2.8% year-over-year, supports the case for further easing. We will be closely watching the upcoming FOMC minutes for confirmation of how many members are on board with this easing stance.

Indikator Ekonomi dan Prospek Pasar

While US pending home sales for November 2025 were surprisingly strong, the broader economic picture still favors a weaker dollar. The November 2025 Non-Farm Payrolls report showed job growth slowing to a modest 150,000, and the unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.1%. This combination of pending inflation and a softening labor market gives the Fed a clear runway to continue cutting rates. On the other side of the pair, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may be finished with its own rate-cutting cycle for now. New Zealand’s inflation has proven stickier, with the Q3 2025 CPI data showing a rate of 3.5%, still well above the RBNZ’s target. This interest rate difference, where US rates are falling while New Zealand’s may hold steady, is supportive for the Kiwi dollar. We must also watch external factors, as China’s economic health heavily influences the Kiwi. The latest Caixin Manufacturing PMI for December 2025 was a lukewarm 50.1, suggesting demand from New Zealand’s biggest trading partner remains sluggish. However, this is offset by positive news from the dairy sector, where the Global Dairy Trade index rose 2.5% in the last auction of 2025. Given this backdrop, we could position for a potential rise in the NZD/USD pair over the coming weeks. Buying call options could be a prudent strategy, allowing us to capture upside potential while limiting downside risk in this holiday market. The key catalyst will be the FOMC minutes, which will either confirm or challenge the market’s dovish expectations for 2026.

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