EskalasI Timur Tengah Mendorong Investor Menghindari Risiko
Serangan AS dan Israel menewaskan Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dari Iran pada hari Sabtu. Iran kemudian menyerang pangkalan AS di negara-negara Teluk dan menembakkan rudal ke pangkalan udara Inggris di Siprus. Data AS menunjukkan sektor pabrik masih cukup kuat. ISM Manufacturing PMI (indeks aktivitas sektor manufaktur/pabrik) untuk Februari adalah 52.4, turun dari 52.6, dan tetap berada di wilayah ekspansi (di atas 50) untuk bulan kedua. Indeks ISM Prices Paid (ukuran harga input/biaya yang dibayar perusahaan) naik dari 59 pada Januari menjadi 70.5. Ini level tertinggi sejak Oktober 2022, tertinggi dalam sekitar tiga setengah tahun. Pasar menurunkan perkiraan pemangkasan suku bunga AS dari 60 basis poin menjadi 48 basis poin. (Basis poin adalah satuan perubahan suku bunga; 100 basis poin = 1%.) Indeks Dolar AS (US Dollar Index/DXY, ukuran kekuatan dolar terhadap beberapa mata uang utama) naik 0.83% ke 98.45.Pembicara Penting Bank Sentral Selanjutnya
Gubernur RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia, bank sentral Australia) Michele Bullock dijadwalkan berbicara pada hari Selasa. Pejabat Fed (Federal Reserve, bank sentral AS) John Williams dan Jeffrey Schmid juga dijadwalkan berbicara. Support (area harga yang sering menahan penurunan) AUD/USD berada dekat 0.7090, lalu 0.7050 dan 0.7000, dengan resistance (area harga yang sering menahan kenaikan) dekat 0.7125 dan 0.7170. Penutupan di atas 0.7170 menargetkan 0.7250. Looking back at the events of 2025, we saw the AUD/USD pair drop to around 0.7083 following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Today, on March 3rd, 2026, the situation has evolved, with the pair trading significantly lower near 0.6550. The intense flight-to-safety from last year has subsided, but the market dynamics have fundamentally shifted since then. A year ago, markets were pricing in nearly 50 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts, but persistent inflation kept the Fed on hold for much longer than anticipated. The US Dollar Index (DXY) reflects this reality, holding strong around 104.5, a considerable difference from the 98.45 level seen during the 2025 turmoil. This sustained dollar strength remains the primary headwind for the AUD/USD. The spike in oil prices during the 2025 conflict has moderated, with WTI crude now trading near $82 per barrel, down from the peaks but still at a level that adds to global inflationary pressures. While the direct military threat has de-escalated, we see that underlying tensions continue to simmer, representing a background risk. This keeps a floor under haven currencies like the US dollar. Australia’s key export, iron ore, has also softened, with prices now hovering around $110 per tonne amid ongoing concerns about China’s property sector and overall industrial demand. This is a change from the more robust commodity environment that supported the Aussie dollar in the past. We must factor this commodity weakness into our outlook. Given this backdrop, we should consider buying put options on the AUD/USD to protect against further downside. A put option with a strike price around 0.6400 could offer a cost-effective hedge if US economic data continues to outperform or if risk aversion returns. This strategy allows for participation in a further decline while capping the initial risk. Implied volatility in AUD/USD has decreased since the highs of the 2025 conflict, and we believe it may be underpricing the risk of renewed market stress. Therefore, establishing long volatility positions, like a long strangle, could be advantageous. This would profit from a significant move in either direction, which is plausible given the uncertain outlook for both global growth and central bank policy in the coming weeks.Mulai trading sekarang — klik di sini untuk membuat akun live VT Markets Anda.
