China menetapkan target pertumbuhan PDB (Produk Domestik Bruto, yaitu total nilai barang dan jasa yang dihasilkan dalam satu negara) tahun 2026 sebesar 4,5–5,0%, turun dari “sekitar 5%” yang dipakai selama tiga tahun terakhir. Kata-kata sebelumnya banyak dianggap memberi kelonggaran 0,2–0,3 poin persentase di sekitar angka 5%. Target fiskal (kebijakan pajak dan belanja negara) dan target ketenagakerjaan dipertahankan secara umum, seiring target defisit fiskal (selisih belanja negara lebih besar daripada pendapatan) dan penerbitan obligasi (surat utang pemerintah) yang stabil. ING memperkirakan pertumbuhan PDB 4,6% yoy (year-on-year, artinya dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun lalu), masih dalam rentang resmi baru.

Reset Target Nasional

Laporan kerja pemerintah mempertahankan tujuan menggandakan PDB per kapita (rata-rata PDB per orang) pada 2035 dibanding 2020. Beberapa provinsi sudah lebih dulu menurunkan target pertumbuhan, sehingga selaras dengan penyesuaian nasional. Arah kebijakan diperkirakan tetap menekankan naik kelas dalam rantai pasok (supply chain, yaitu jaringan produksi dan distribusi dari bahan baku hingga produk jadi) dan meningkatkan kemandirian teknologi (kemampuan mengembangkan dan memakai teknologi sendiri tanpa banyak bergantung pada pihak luar). Ketidakpastian utamanya adalah apakah permintaan domestik (belanja dan konsumsi di dalam negeri) bisa menguat saat kepercayaan masih lemah. China’s new GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5.0% signals a shift away from the more aggressive stimulus measures some traders were hoping for. This realistic target, coming after we saw official growth hit 5.2% in 2025, suggests upside for Chinese equity indices like the CSI 300 will be capped. Strategies that bet on a strong, stimulus-fueled rally should be reconsidered in favor of more cautious approaches.

Market Strategy Implications

The decision to avoid a major fiscal push means demand for industrial commodities will likely remain subdued. This is bearish for assets like iron ore and copper futures, which rely on large-scale infrastructure and property development. Given the ongoing weakness in China’s property sector, we believe selling call options on any commodity price rallies could be a prudent strategy. The biggest uncertainty remains domestic demand, as consumer confidence continues to be a drag on the economy. Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed the consumer confidence index struggled to stay above the neutral 100-point mark through February. This tepid sentiment makes it difficult to expect a consumption-led recovery, which will weigh on consumer-facing stocks. For currency traders, this softer growth outlook could put gentle downward pressure on the Yuan. However, the People’s Bank of China will likely manage any depreciation carefully, as we observed throughout 2025, to avoid capital flight. This suggests a slow grind higher for USD/CNH, making it a market for patient traders rather than those seeking high volatility. The clearer but lower growth target may actually reduce overall market volatility by managing expectations. This environment favors strategies that profit from range-bound price action, such as selling strangles or straddles on equity index options. Big directional bets appear less favorable until we see a meaningful improvement in domestic confidence.

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